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Old 12-07-2022, 05:43 PM   #1
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Thor Industries Demand Waning…

https://www.investors.com/news/thor-...nd-dissipates/

Thor Industries Earnings Fall As Pandemic RV Demand Wanes, But Still Top Views

KIT NORTON
Thor Industries (THO) reported first-quarter 2023 earnings that topped views early Wednesday but still fell sharply vs. a year earlier as demand for RVs appears to be retreating from pandemic highs. Thor stock edged up Wednesday.

The company, which has its headquarters in Elkhart, Ind., sells both towable and motorhome-type RVs. It operates through the brand names Airstream, Heartland RV, Jayco and Livin Lite RV.

RV sales had been on a decade-long upward trend, but the coronavirus pandemic supercharged consumer interest. Americans, cautious of traveling in airplanes, packed into RVs and motor homes.

However, more than two years on, that interest appears to be decreasing.


Thor Stock: Earnings

Estimates: Wall Street forecast the RV camper and emergency vehicle manufacturer earning $1.76 per share, a 59% drop vs. a year earlier, according to FactSet. Sales were expected to fall 26% to $2.89 billion.

Results: Thor earnings fell 42% vs. a year earlier to $2.53 a share. Revenue fell 21.5% to $3.11 billion.

Outlook: Thor sees fiscal 2023 EPS of $7.40-$8.70, with the $8.05 midpoint slightly below consensus. It expects full-year sales of $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion, with the midpoint above analyst targets.

Thor stock advanced 3.8% to 87.22 Wednesday during market trading. On Tuesday shares fell 1.40% to 83.88. THO shares are in a cup-with-handle base with a 93.24 buy point, according to MarketSmith analysis.

In Q4 2022, the company beat estimates, with EPS growing 25% to $5.15. Revenue edged up 6.4% to $3.82 billion.

In Thor Industries' 2022 fiscal year, earnings exploded 74% to $20.59 per share while sales shot up 32% to $16.31 billion.

RV Industry Demand Waning

There were a total of 32,652 RV shipments in October, a decrease of 43.7% compared to October 2021, according to the most recent numbers from the RV Industry Association. The industry association also reports that between January 2022-October 2022, RV shipments are down 12% compared to the same point last year.

"As we enter the holiday season, shipments of RVs continue to normalize from last year's record production," RV Industry Association CEO Craig Kirby said in a statement.

On Monday DA Davison analyst Brandon Rolle raised the firm's price target for Thor stock to 65 from 60. Rolle maintained an "underperform" rating on THO shares.

Rolle wrote there are likely to be production cuts across the RV industry in January 2023, coupled with decelerating retail demand. However, Rolle told investors in his research note he expects THO to top earnings views in the first quarter.

The fall in RV demand comes as diesel and gasoline prices are declining. Average U.S. gasoline prices on Wednesday were $3.35 per gallon, down around 11% from a month ago, according to the AAA gas price tracker. Meanwhile, U.S. diesel prices hovered on average around $5.03 per gallon Wednesday, also about a 11% drop from lost month, the AAA reports.

Thor stock has an 84 Composite Rating of 98. It has a 77 Relative Strength Rating, an exclusive IBD Stock Checkup gauge for share price movement. The EPS rating is 92.

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Old 12-07-2022, 07:11 PM   #2
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Not surprised, I'm sure that Forrest River is seeing the same. Also look at the marine industry I believe it too will see a big slow down. The recreational sector is in for a big hit for the next few years.
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Old 12-07-2022, 11:53 PM   #3
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Motorcycles too.
People are cutting the price when trying to sell used ones, and staying on market longer.
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Old 12-08-2022, 12:57 AM   #4
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Had to happen eventually. The backlog had gotten a little crazy there.
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Old 12-08-2022, 01:42 AM   #5
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Anyone with half a brain saw that coming and the article is old news.
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Old 12-08-2022, 02:32 AM   #6
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Simply the Ebb and Flo of a Free Market Cycle.
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Old 12-08-2022, 02:41 PM   #7
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Help is on the way. Gas going down. Should boost sales and travel.

Gasoline is cheaper now than a year ago — and could fall below $3

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/08/gaso...ndroidappsharehttps://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/08/gaso...ndroidappshare
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Old 12-08-2022, 06:10 PM   #8
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Just parked the Tuscany yesterday after another fall trip. Filled up at Cenex to top off the tank at $3.79 which is the best this year but still 2x or almost depending on area and timing. Couple weeks ago, filled at $4.49

I noted last trip the number of RVs in lots and this trip they are out into the overflow so still receiving deliveries.

The cycle is inevitable and expected and there is a lot more that will be affected than just the RV world. We are heading out on a longer trip in two weeks and will see more of the South and SE areas.

No issue at all with reservations as they all have open sites.

Housing markets are being hit hard and they have better rates of interest than the RV world.

I am curious as to next spring when we head West and NW to see the impact on the resorts. Some of the resorts that increased site rents significantly might have to eat crow and that might be a good thing.

All in all, the economy is going to hit a lot of folks hard, and I certainly can identify with them. My health insurance and Medicare cost both took a nice increase, and I am sure I am not alone there. The SS increase sure don't cover the living cost increase and therefore RV's and other lifestyles get hit first.
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Old 12-08-2022, 08:14 PM   #9
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Help is on the way. Gas going down. Should boost sales and travel.

Gasoline is cheaper now than a year ago — and could fall below $3
Could? I filled up at Exxon an hour ago at $2.58, and at H-E-B grocery store gas station where we stopped on way home it was even lower at $2.55.
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Old 12-09-2022, 03:27 AM   #10
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Could? I filled up at Exxon an hour ago at $2.58, and at H-E-B grocery store gas station where we stopped on way home it was even lower at $2.55.
That's $3.00 national average: not Texas price.
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Old 12-09-2022, 11:36 AM   #11
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It is not a surprise to anyone with some common sense..... which eliminates a lot of people who run this country and then some.

I was watching Fox Business yesterday afternoon and they had an Analyst on who was in Indiana visiting an RV Manufacturer (unnamed) who had just shut down one of their plants and it is only being manned by skeleton crew for the foreseeable future. The analyst said another manufacturer did the same thing with a plant in Tennessee.

Two weeks ago Kings Furniture closed down without warning with 2700 people permanently laid-off. Big ticket discretionary items like RV's, boats, etc. are going to take a big hit.

We have been in the start of a recession for months even though our "Government" has tried to redefine the term. Runaway spending.... ignoring inflation was building 18 months ago... then the Fed raising interest rates at a record pace to combat inflation to break the economy so jobs are lost.

The train left the station months ago and has started down the hill and it's just looking for a place at the bottom to wreck.

Hold on tight..... the ride is going to be rough one.
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Old 12-09-2022, 01:28 PM   #12
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Since we ALL saw this coming: who is really surprised by this news??
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Old 12-09-2022, 03:32 PM   #13
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A few posts deleted for political rules violations.

Keep the politics out or the tread will be closed.
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Old 12-09-2022, 03:50 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Judge View Post
It is not a surprise to anyone with some common sense..... which eliminates a lot of people who run this country and then some.

I was watching Fox Business yesterday afternoon and they had an Analyst on who was in Indiana visiting an RV Manufacturer (unnamed) who had just shut down one of their plants and it is only being manned by skeleton crew for the foreseeable future. The analyst said another manufacturer did the same thing with a plant in Tennessee.

Two weeks ago Kings Furniture closed down without warning with 2700 people permanently laid-off. Big ticket discretionary items like RV's, boats, etc. are going to take a big hit.

We have been in the start of a recession for months even though our "Government" has tried to redefine the term. Runaway spending.... ignoring inflation was building 18 months ago... then the Fed raising interest rates at a record pace to combat inflation to break the economy so jobs are lost.

The train left the station months ago and has started down the hill and it's just looking for a place at the bottom to wreck.

Hold on tight..... the ride is going to be rough one.
100% correct hang on for a wild ride coming
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Old 12-09-2022, 04:39 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by Judge View Post
It is not a surprise to anyone with some common sense..... which eliminates a lot of people who run this country and then some.

I was watching Fox Business yesterday afternoon and they had an Analyst on who was in Indiana visiting an RV Manufacturer (unnamed) who had just shut down one of their plants and it is only being manned by skeleton crew for the foreseeable future. The analyst said another manufacturer did the same thing with a plant in Tennessee.

Two weeks ago Kings Furniture closed down without warning with 2700 people permanently laid-off. Big ticket discretionary items like RV's, boats, etc. are going to take a big hit.

We have been in the start of a recession for months even though our "Government" has tried to redefine the term. Runaway spending.... ignoring inflation was building 18 months ago... then the Fed raising interest rates at a record pace to combat inflation to break the economy so jobs are lost.

The train left the station months ago and has started down the hill and it's just looking for a place at the bottom to wreck.

Hold on tight..... the ride is going to be rough one.

My understanding is that when money is cheap, too many people end up buying big ticket items like houses and motorhomes they couldn't afford otherwise; only because they could finance over 20 years or longer and pay back at extremely low rates that are not sustainable. That leads to inflation which has to be controlled, and it is usually painful because the correction normally leads to greater unemployment.

Obviously when buyers have limited funds they cut back first on unnecessary luxuries in order to pay for essentials like housing and food. This cycle has affected the RV industry many times during my life, but excessive buying due to Covid probably will make this cycle worse. Or maybe not — who knows.

In my opinion consumers are just as guilty as government, though a distinction without a difference.
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Old 12-09-2022, 08:24 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judge View Post
It is not a surprise to anyone with some common sense..... which eliminates a lot of people who run this country and then some.
[whack whack whack]

Hold on tight..... the ride is going to be rough one.
Indeed.. For those who are financially able..NOW is the time to "Go to Cash" for all purchases and reduce or best option, remove most if not all long term debt...
If You are "Full Time" travelers, plan on staying put for a month or more between short sessions of hitting the road..
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Old 12-09-2022, 09:36 PM   #17
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Glass is half-full perspective: maybe slowing down production at the Thor factories will improve their product quality.....
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Old 12-10-2022, 06:02 AM   #18
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It's either going to get better or it's going to get worse... of course it could stay the same...

At least gasoline (around here) is below $3... now if that holds out through next summer...

Meanwhile we're cruising around this winter on .073/kWh "fuel" in the wife's Chevy Bolt...
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Old 12-10-2022, 12:12 PM   #19
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Interest rates and memory

I find it interesting when some scream like stuck pigs about the current interest rates. Memories in this country are short and self serving. Just go back to the 80s and what happened when even worse inflation hit. In the early 80s I got a home/land loan through the Federal Land Bank and at 11% was thrilled to get that low. In the late 80s got a VA for a house in AZ the 7.5% was great. Cheap and "free" money the guvmnt offered for years has spoiled many. Gravy train is over for now.

Many companies, Wallyworld included, are jumping into the BNPL, Buy Now Pay Later, scheme. After all the defaults coming in the near future who's do you think will cover those losses. Honest and responsible people, that's who.

If someone didn't see the RV demand dropping they must have been real comfortable under that rock. Lower but still ridiculously high fuel prices will help those who can still afford to buy groceries. The recession is real and gonna get worse in the next 2+ years. Enjoy what you can afford to do.
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Old 12-10-2022, 02:49 PM   #20
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Thread title is a little misleading because it’s an industry-wide issue, not just a Thor problem. Data show Thor remains at top of market share lists in most RV categories, including motorhomes, travel trailers, and fifth wheels.


https://rvbusiness.com/ssi-28016-ret...-23-2-decline/
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