Thor and the stock market

[ducksface]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foo...-115-gain.aspx

[The_Breeze]

Originally Posted by ducksface

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foo...-115-gain.aspx

The title grabs your attention but the devil is in the details. It's one thing to anticipate sales and profit, another to produce it.

The RV market is walking into an economy of pent up demand with little way to pay for it. The safety of that is Thor has their money and the banks are left holding the bag. Coupled with the 20MM+ jobless claims, there won't be many people in the market space who will apply, or qualify, for a loan.

Buy on the hype. Sell on the news.

[Judge]

Originally Posted by The_Breeze

The title grabs your attention but the devil is in the details. It's one thing to anticipate sales and profit, another to produce it.

The RV market is walking into an economy of pent up demand with little way to pay for it. The safety of that is Thor has their money and the banks are left holding the bag. Coupled with the 20MM+ jobless claims, there won't be many people in the market space who will apply, or qualify, for a loan.

Buy on the hype. Sell on the news.

I'm not so sure I totally agree......

I started this thread yesterday....

https://www.thorforums.com/forums/f2...les-21524.html


After thinking about it I'm not sure the RV industry is going to take the huge hit I thought it would when this started. I'm not saying it will be a huge growth industry now but I don't think it is going to completely tank either for the following reasons:

1. While the number of jobs lost will go up over the next several months, half of them will come back by this time next year. I am also hopeful that now that the playing field is more level with China and we have all seen how dangerous it is relying on China, more US companies will bring their operations back to the US and that will create new jobs here..... plus 80% of the jobs in the economy have not evaporated.

2. People who still have jobs will still want to go on family vacations but the way they vacation will change for at least the next year or so. They won't be staying in hotels... they won't be jumping on planes..... they won't be going to theme parks, etc. There will be a lot of people new to RV'ing to vacation, social distance and have more control over their environment. This is why there is now a spike in RV sales and that may continue for the next 1 - 2 quarters.

3. RV sales are spread over a wide range of incomes when you think about it.

- Two of the three step kids and their families have campers. They each have three young kids and don't make a lot of money all things considered. It is still an economical way for the family to do things from spring - fall. I don't see that changing if those people still have jobs.

- There are older folks with money who planned to roam around in their RV's as they reached retirement. While many already have their RV's, there are still others who have saved and planned for it. My wife and I are 56 and still plan to early retire next year. Even though the market has taken a hit and come part of the way back it will be volatile for another 12 months but we are not changing our plans. We traded in our Class C for a Super C last fall and our plans have not changed. Even if I didn't buy the Super C earlier than planned last fall, I would still be purchasing it this year.

I'm not sure I see the RV industry taking the huge negative hit that other vertical markets will..... like the restaurant industry or brick and mortar retail. I think there will be a spike in business as first-timers jump in to make RV'ing their vacation replacement. It then may dip as some used RV's come into the market and people wait to see if there jobs are secure and if lockdowns come back in the fall.

[Bob Denman]

The Stock Market is being driven by the investor's assessments of what the future holds. One company's stock has virtually no effect on it.
But the potential investors in that stock have expectations, and that drives the price of the stocks.

It's all about what their "best guesses" are.

[The_Breeze]

Originally Posted by Judge

I'm not so sure I totally agree......

I started this thread yesterday....
cut...

I didn't mean to imply it would tank, just not the stellar performer some thought it might. But hey, I've been wrong before and don't mind learning from my mistakes. You tend to remember those lessons better than unabated successes.

Maybe I just come from the school of hard knocks

Just to partially affirm some of your convictions, Black and Decker is rumored to be closing it's factory in China and building a $90MM factory in the US. We'll see

[Judge]

RVs Are About To Take Over The World After COVID-19

https://rvlife.com/rvs-world-covid/

[JamieGeek]

Originally Posted by Judge

RVs Are About To Take Over The World After COVID-19

https://rvlife.com/rvs-world-covid/

Another such article:
https://www.travelpulse.com/news/fea...of-the-rv.html

At this rate I don't want to go anywhere: all the campgrounds will be too crowded! LOL

[Bob Denman]

Originally Posted by JamieGeek

Another such article:
https://www.travelpulse.com/news/fea...of-the-rv.html

At this rate I don't want to go anywhere: all the campgrounds will be too crowded! LOL

I fear that you may be right...

https://www.thorforums.com/forums/at...1&d=1589479797

[BradnKaren]

Vacation travel WILL change post-Covid, and the RV life is going to get a second look by those who never considered it. Opportunity might not just be investing in RV manufacturing, but in RV resorts and campgrounds as well. Here in Florida good sites are booked solid most of the year, and command a premium price to rent.

We purchased a lot in an RV resort near the west coast of Florida with a dock and water access to the Gulf of Mexico in 2009 for $120k. Doubled our money in 10 years as it is now worth at least $225k. 3-4 months of snow bird renters pay for all our expenses for the entire year. Best investment in our portfolio hands down.

[blj1961]

What I have found is things are based on amenities. Those of us that do not require a pool, game room, WiFi etc will probably find not much of an increase. The full service places with all the amenities very crowded and getting more so.

[Judge]

Front page of the local paper this morning talked about how RV sales are through the roof.

One dealer thought they would be going out of business but they sold their entire used Inventory as soon as they were allowed to reopen and about a 1/3 of their new inventory.

Now their problem is they can’t get anyone to work because people are making more on the enhanced unemployment.

It’s already been tough getting camp site reservations at times.... it’s going to start getting a lot worse.

[Bob Denman]

I was just going to ask where the sales where: new... or used?
But since you already covered it: Thanks!

[Beau388]

Just look at Camping World stock. A low of $3.87 on March 2 and the close Friday $21.18. Everything on the lots is selling at least at the New Braunfels store.

[Bob Denman]

With that much new-found value: I hope they invest in some qualified Technicians...

[Beau388]

Originally Posted by Bob Denman

With that much new-found value: I hope they invest in some qualified Technicians...

With nine major RV dealers between San Antonio and Austin plus two huge independent RV repair places (Iron Horse RV & Texas RV Supply) and several smaller ones, every one has to be good to survive. The result is the $135 per hour service charge.

[Bob Denman]

Originally Posted by Beau388

With nine major RV dealers between San Antonio and Austin plus two huge independent RV repair places (Iron Horse RV & Texas RV Supply) and several smaller ones, every one has to be good to survive. The result is the $135 per hour service charge.

But if they charge less, and used less-qualified Technicians; How expensive could that turn out to be?

[EA37TS]

Originally Posted by Bob Denman

But if they charge less, and used less-qualified Technicians; How expensive could that turn out to be?

The most important question is

How much are you willing to pay for service on your rig?

[Judge]

From my experience with a couple dealers so far in the past few years.... I would not classify the Dealer employees to be experienced and well trained in many instances. They may have one "expert" but most of the service people are not.

The other challenge is...... they service multiple makes and models so it is even harder for them to become experts or well versed in any particular model because they don't see them enough on a regular basis.

That's why I decided that for any major work that I can't do or wouldn't trust a dealer to do, I will go to Thor Factory Service in our out of warranty. All they do is service Thor products so they have the experience, know the short comings and can get parts immediately in most cases.

[Beau388]

I was sideswiped on I-40 three years ago. I had Iron Horse repair the coach. The total bill was just over $12,000, It took Iron Horse 14 days to replace the basement doors, slide surround, driveshaft, exhaust, re-attach the rear cap and repaint the coach. Thor provided the replacement doors 8 days after they were ordered. Body work and paint took the most time. A nod to The Hartford who payed the entire bill minus my deductible.

[Judge]

There are several specialized RV service shops out there that are very good because all they do is work on RV's.... and aren't selling them.

I would consider one of these shops if they had a good reputation.