Covid-19: Is it impacting your plans?

[JohnnyD]

Duckface, I'm new here, but parhaps you could slow down a bit , relax and let go for a moment.

[EA37TS]

Originally Posted by Pete'sMH

We live in a high density multi family condominium and we were considering traveling to one of our favorite wilderness locations to hang out as we often do - camping, hiking and enjoying the wilderness. I would imaging that the two of us driving an RV to Wyoming and then staying there would provide greater isolation than remaining where we are. But the point is moot since our state seems poised to prohibit all non essential travel. Guess we were too slow in bugging out!

How is the state going to prohibit you from hopping in your RV and traveling?

We still live in a democratic society and Marshal Law has not been declared. Seems to me the only restriction would be campgrounds open between where you are and where you want to be.

[ducksface]

Originally Posted by EA37TS

How is the state going to prohibit you from hopping in your RV and traveling?

We still live in a democratic society and Marshal Law has not been declared. Seems to me the only restriction would be campgrounds open between where you are and where you want to be.

As above.
And
Why haven't you left since posting this a couple of hours ago?
If I were serious, I'd be gone.

Do you have a link to the non essential travel info?

[Pete'sMH]

Originally Posted by ducksface

As above.
And
Why haven't you left since posting this a couple of hours ago?
If I were serious, I'd be gone.

Do you have a link to the non essential travel info?

Well for one thing there’s still like a billion inches of snow in Wyoming! And we’re still planning to go for all these reasons.

[Lt Keefer]

I read that concerned physician link and didn't learn anything new. The info from the CDC page is number based and leads me to believe the virus is real and more deadly than seasonal flu. But as it stands today, the infection rate as a percentage of our population is too low for my calculator to put a number on it. That makes me think there is more to this media based panic than our personal safety.

[abjbrtd]

Lt Keefer, we not panicked, maybe dw's dr has
anyway

Sure glad we're not on our "bucket list" rv trip across Europe.

Here are yesterdays covid19 statistics for Italy.
Spain is almost this bad

"Coronavirus (nCoV): Italy COVID-19 coronavirus cases and deaths

Italy COVID cases reached 24,747 on 15 March, marking the biggest coronavirus outbreak outside Asia.
COVID-19 Italy death toll reached 1,809, witnessing a sharp increase in the last few days.
The Italian coronavirus cases surged from hundreds to thousands within two weeks, from a few hundred in the third week of February to more than 3,000 in the first week of March and crossed 10,000 on 10 March."

DW's doctor told her to "shelter in place" ( she has a compromised immune system) and that we're a few weeks behind Italy.

FYI: Italy is a relatively tiny country compared to the USA, 60m compared to 327million in 2018

[Pete'sMH]

According to the CDCs final report (written in 2011) the 2009 H1N1 pandemic resulted in 60.8 million infected Americans, 274,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths. I remember that everyone was pretty worried but it certainly was nothing like we’re seeing now. “They” must be terrified about how dangerous this thing is to throw so many people out of work and shut down business and travel nationwide.

I’m happy to do my bit to help flatten the curve, but this is getting weird!

[Hugh.vines@att.net]

From all I’ve read almost everyone in the US will get it and it will last through the fall but not everyone will die. About 1 to 2 percent. Mostly old and weak. But we all got to go sometime. So get out there America.

[Pete'sMH]

Originally Posted by ducksface

As above.
And
Why haven't you left since posting this a couple of hours ago?
If I were serious, I'd be gone.

Do you have a link to the non essential travel info?

https://www.wthr.com/article/fishers...l-restrictions

[ducksface]

Your mayor isn't exactly your STATE
and his restrictions have nothing to do with you not being able to leave town.

Your initial statement is exactly how panic ensues and is exactly why I wanted a link.

Do we see the problem here?

Between your 'state restriction'
And
'trust me I'm a doctor'

It's been a day of some wild stereotypical
'made it up in my head'

I really don't have an opinion on this covid stuff except dammit, if you don't know, don't make stuff up.

[Pete'sMH]

Originally Posted by ducksface

7Your mayor isn't exactly your STATE
and his restrictions have nothing to do with you not being able to leave town.

Your initial statement is exactly how panic ensues and is exactly why I wanted a link.

Do we see the problem here?

Between your 'state restriction'
And
'trust me I'm a doctor'

It's been a day of some wild stereotypical
'made it up in my head'

Wow! You need to chill. I didn’t say the state HAS prohibited it. I said we SEEM to be poised to go there. Bad enough than my community (among many) already is there.

This thread is getting out of hand. I apologize if my comments have scared anyone (else) and I’ll keep my further comments to myself. Be safe, my friends.

[ducksface]

Nothing is out hand.
Asking for a responsible source to back up potentially irresponsible conjectures is not out of control.

Just like the
A 50 amp rv plug is 360volt thread.
If you say it, I'm going to ask for proof.
Not because I think you're wrong, but because you've lead me to think/doubt I might be wrong and could use an education regarding my presumptions or inaccurate belief.

[ducksface]

Originally Posted by V&D axis

We are in Arizona and have been going to National parks and state parks, with no problem. Back home our county just went on lock down, stay home and businesses that are not essential are to closed. We have plans for 2 more weeks but now I’m getting worried that we may need to go home. Our children are back east.

If you're near the grand canyon and need anything just pm me.
I'll cover you.

80/20 chance You'll drive right past my place to get to the grand canyon

[MJC62]

Originally Posted by Pete'sMH

Wow! You need to chill. I didn’t say the state HAS prohibited it. I said we SEEM to be poised to go there. Bad enough than my community (among many) already is there.

This thread is getting out of hand. I apologize if my comments have scared anyone (else) and I’ll keep my further comments to myself. Be safe, my friends.

Thank you Pete for your insight and the link
We have same going on here in NW Indiana. I read Indiana’s first fatality was a man around my own age. Put’s things in a different perspective.

[RDC54]

OK, I want to try to explain why this virus is so concerning. All I ask is that you try to keep an open mind.

First, this is a new, or “novel” virus. Yes, we do have other coronaviruses that have plagued us for decades, and typically these cause colds, or maybe bad colds, but you aren’t likely to die. This virus is different. This particular coronavirus has never occurred in humans before, which means that NONE of us have any immunity to it. Because of this, it is highly contagious, and much more deadly than the coronaviruses we are used to.

Second, the virus causes a cough and runny nose and sneezing (among other symptoms), which is the perfect way to spread itself among the population. Scientists measure the spread of an epidemic by a number called R0, or “R naught”. This is the basic reproduction number, or the number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where everyone is susceptible (which is exactly our situation now).

In other words, for every person who develops the illness, R0 represents how many people they give it to before they are cured, or dead, and no longer infectious. Based on our experience to date with this novel virus (182,000 confirmed cases worldwide as of this morning, taken from the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Global Case Tracker), the R0 for Covid-19 is close to 3. This is a frightening number. Lets say you get the virus…this means you will give it to 3 other people, and they EACH give it to 3 others, and so on…If you do the math, in just 15 steps of transmission, the number of infected people will be over 14,000,000.

But we don’t have that many cases, right? Not in the US, and not even in the world (because yes, I just said we have 182,000 confirmed cases as of this morning). Problem is, we don’t really know how many cases we have in the US, because we don’t have readily available testing. Yes, they are working on it, but we don’t have the tests available yet to give us accurate numbers. And if we don’t have it, do you really think they have testing available in third world countries? And the UK has just thrown in the towel and given up on testing almost completely (unless you are already sick enough to be hospitalized).

OK, so we have this virus that is moving explosively through the population. I have heard people say coronavirus is no worse than a cold, or the flu, so what’s the big deal. Even if you get it, most people will have a mild illness, and will recover. This isn’t the problem.

In a nation of 330,000,000 people, it is estimated that 40-70% of us will get the virus before this is over. Conservatively, than means 132,000,000 of us will get this. Most will in fact have a mild illness….we’re talking about 80% of those who get it will have relatively mild illness, and not require medical care. But 20% will get sick enough to require medical care (a trip to the ER, hospitalization, supplemental oxygen), and 5% will be critically ill, requiring intensive care and likely ventilator support. This means 26 million people in this country will require medical care, and 6.6 million people will be critically ill and require intensive care.

How about the mortality rate? How many people will die from this virus? The mortality rate for influenza is 0.1%. But this is not the flu…the death rate from this coronavirus is much higher. At least 10 times higher. The flu kills about 60,000 to 70,000 people a year in this country, which means this virus has the potential to kill 600,000-700,000 people per year. And no, we don’t know exactly what the mortality rate is, because we don’t at this point have accurate testing of our population. We do know that in Wuhan, China the death rate from coronavirus is currently estimated at 1.4%, though some have said it could be as high as 2-3%. And in Italy and Spain, the mortality rate is much higher, maybe 5-6%, because the healthcare systems there are overwhelmed by the numbers of seriously and critically ill patients. They can’t give patients the care they need, so more people are dying.

So, lets talk for a minute about healthcare capabilities in our country. It is estimated that there are 34.7 critical care beds per 100,000 population in our country. That works out to roughly 115,000 critical care beds in the country. In the whole country. But if 6 million people are critically ill and need intensive care, where will we put them? This is the problem Italy and Spain are struggling with. This is why so many people are dying there.

And what about healthcare workers…someone pointed out that more people die in this country from cancer or obesity or other “self-inflicted” illnesses than will die from this virus. That is true, but health care providers don’t run the risk of catching cancer or obesity from the patients they care for. And if the healthcare providers get sick and have to self-quarantine, who is going to take care of you when you get sick? An intensive care bed is no good without the doctors, nurses, respiratory therapists, lab techs, etc. to staff it.

I am sorry to paint such a grim picture, but I really believe this is a national crisis. So where is the hope? You’ve probably heard talk of trying to “flatten the curve”. This refers to trying to slow the rate at which people get sick, so that we don’t overwhelm our healthcare system. The best way to do this, is to self-isolate. If you don’t come into contact with other people, then hopefully you won’t catch the virus or spread it to others. Maybe the best way to do this IS to go out to your favorite boondocking location and hunker down…but how many people will you encounter on the way? If one person infects three others, and they each infect three more, and so on…you get the point. And what happens when you need to re-supply?

I realize that I have not answered ALL of the questions directed at me. I haven’t touched on age-related risk, or pre-existing conditions, or treatment, or prevention, or how this makes you sick, or even how it kills, but this post is already too long...

In a sense, this post is a trial balloon. I know that people react differently to crisis…denial, depression, anxiety and even anger are all common reactions. My personal approach is to try to gather knowledge, and I am willing to continue to share my knowledge and answer questions, but please don’t shoot the messenger. I am trying to stay healthy, and frankly I don’t need the stress.

For those of you looking for facts to back up the numbers in this post, my source is largely a publication called UpToDate. It is an evidence-based repository of medical information, continuously updated and made available to clinicians. I just discovered that I can share a link, and am doing so below. This article contains more than 100 references...

https://www.uptodate.com/contents/co...e=contentShare


To those of you that made it this far, thanks for listening, and stay healthy!

[PictureTheSouth]

North Carolina State Park facilities, including campgrounds, closing as of today.

[Pete'sMH]

Originally Posted by RDC54

OK, I want to try to explain why this virus is so concerning. All I ask is that you try to keep an open mind.



First, this is a new, or “novel” virus. Yes, we do have other coronaviruses that have plagued us for decades, and typically these cause colds, or maybe bad colds, but you aren’t likely to die. This virus is different. This particular coronavirus has never occurred in humans before, which means that NONE of us have any immunity to it. Because of this, it is highly contagious, and much more deadly than the coronaviruses we are used to.



Second, the virus causes a cough and runny nose and sneezing (among other symptoms), which is the perfect way to spread itself among the population. Scientists measure the spread of an epidemic by a number called R0, or “R naught”. This is the basic reproduction number, or the number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where everyone is susceptible (which is exactly our situation now).



In other words, for every person who develops the illness, R0 represents how many people they give it to before they are cured, or dead, and no longer infectious. Based on our experience to date with this novel virus (182,000 confirmed cases worldwide as of this morning, taken from the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Global Case Tracker), the R0 for Covid-19 is close to 3. This is a frightening number. Lets say you get the virus…this means you will give it to 3 other people, and they EACH give it to 3 others, and so on…If you do the math, in just 15 steps of transmission, the number of infected people will be over 14,000,000.



But we don’t have that many cases, right? Not in the US, and not even in the world (because yes, I just said we have 182,000 confirmed cases as of this morning). Problem is, we don’t really know how many cases we have in the US, because we don’t have readily available testing. Yes, they are working on it, but we don’t have the tests available yet to give us accurate numbers. And if we don’t have it, do you really think they have testing available in third world countries? And the UK has just thrown in the towel and given up on testing almost completely (unless you are already sick enough to be hospitalized).



OK, so we have this virus that is moving explosively through the population. I have heard people say coronavirus is no worse than a cold, or the flu, so what’s the big deal. Even if you get it, most people will have a mild illness, and will recover. This isn’t the problem.



In a nation of 330,000,000 people, it is estimated that 40-70% of us will get the virus before this is over. Conservatively, than means 132,000,000 of us will get this. Most will in fact have a mild illness….we’re talking about 80% of those who get it will have relatively mild illness, and not require medical care. But 20% will get sick enough to require medical care (a trip to the ER, hospitalization, supplemental oxygen), and 5% will be critically ill, requiring intensive care and likely ventilator support. This means 26 million people in this country will require medical care, and 6.6 million people will be critically ill and require intensive care.



How about the mortality rate? How many people will die from this virus? The mortality rate for influenza is 0.1%. But this is not the flu…the death rate from this coronavirus is much higher. At least 10 times higher. The flu kills about 60,000 to 70,000 people a year in this country, which means this virus has the potential to kill 600,000-700,000 people per year. And no, we don’t know exactly what the mortality rate is, because we don’t at this point have accurate testing of our population. We do know that in Wuhan, China the death rate from coronavirus is currently estimated at 1.4%, though some have said it could be as high as 2-3%. And in Italy and Spain, the mortality rate is much higher, maybe 5-6%, because the healthcare systems there are overwhelmed by the numbers of seriously and critically ill patients. They can’t give patients the care they need, so more people are dying.



So, lets talk for a minute about healthcare capabilities in our country. It is estimated that there are 34.7 critical care beds per 100,000 population in our country. That works out to roughly 115,000 critical care beds in the country. In the whole country. But if 6 million people are critically ill and need intensive care, where will we put them? This is the problem Italy and Spain are struggling with. This is why so many people are dying there.



And what about healthcare workers…someone pointed out that more people die in this country from cancer or obesity or other “self-inflicted” illnesses than will die from this virus. That is true, but health care providers don’t run the risk of catching cancer or obesity from the patients they care for. And if the healthcare providers get sick and have to self-quarantine, who is going to take care of you when you get sick? An intensive care bed is no good without the doctors, nurses, respiratory therapists, lab techs, etc. to staff it.



I am sorry to paint such a grim picture, but I really believe this is a national crisis. So where is the hope? You’ve probably heard talk of trying to “flatten the curve”. This refers to trying to slow the rate at which people get sick, so that we don’t overwhelm our healthcare system. The best way to do this, is to self-isolate. If you don’t come into contact with other people, then hopefully you won’t catch the virus or spread it to others. Maybe the best way to do this IS to go out to your favorite boondocking location and hunker down…but how many people will you encounter on the way? If one person infects three others, and they each infect three more, and so on…you get the point. And what happens when you need to re-supply?



I realize that I have not answered ALL of the questions directed at me. I haven’t touched on age-related risk, or pre-existing conditions, or treatment, or prevention, or how this makes you sick, or even how it kills, but this post is already too long...



In a sense, this post is a trial balloon. I know that people react differently to crisis…denial, depression, anxiety and even anger are all common reactions. My personal approach is to try to gather knowledge, and I am willing to continue to share my knowledge and answer questions, but please don’t shoot the messenger. I am trying to stay healthy, and frankly I don’t need the stress.



For those of you looking for facts to back up the numbers in this post, my source is largely a publication called UpToDate. It is an evidence-based repository of medical information, continuously updated and made available to clinicians. I just discovered that I can share a link, and am doing so below. This article contains more than 100 references...



https://www.uptodate.com/contents/co...e=contentShare





To those of you that made it this far, thanks for listening, and stay healthy!

Nicely presented but I have a legitimate question. You (correctly) state that we don’t really know how many cases there are either in this country or worldwide because of inadequate testing capabilities. Obviously we DO have a pretty good count on the number of deaths. But the mortality rate is defined as the number of deaths divided by the number of cases so how do we actually know that the rate is as high as you and others report? If the number of cases is really 500,000 in this country as some have suggested then the rate is much closer to the “normal” flu rate. Thank you.

[m1noel]

RDC54-
Thank you for taking your valuable time to provide us with so much info. I will be camping this weekend, have planned it for months, and will have very little to no human contact except for my DW. Fresh air can't hurt.
Mike

[Beau388]

The death rate is very dependent on age group, individual health and medical care received. Based on previous pandemics 40 to 60% of a population must contract the virus in order for the rate of infection to decrease. It is named a novel virus because no one has any resistance to this particular virus. Individual isolation will only slow the spread, not prevent the spread. In our little retirement village of 700 with an average age of 80 years and 2 months, we expect 60 to 80 residents to die. Hopefully we will not be among less fortunate.

[MJC62]

Thank you RDC54 for your informed post.