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Old 04-09-2020, 12:41 AM   #41
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Linear on a linear graph produces straight lines.



Exponential produces a curve going to the sky.

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.... you can show anything you want depending on how you lay out the data.

A bar graph with each bar being total cases to date will show the exponential curve... adding a few cases a day... then a hundred... then hundreds... then a thousand...
And data really represents a week ago since test results take up to 7 days to come back...
Hospitalizations should be current data.
Deaths reflect those infected up to 2 weeks ago.

I hope the curve is flattening but not sure we have the data yet... A very small percentage of people have been tested.
Many with mild symptoms likely haven’t been tested and of course those with no symptoms but contagious haven’t been tested.

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Old 04-09-2020, 12:47 AM   #42
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Stay were your at. No need to risk spreading the virus just to get home or pick up a puppy.
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Old 04-09-2020, 12:51 AM   #43
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We wintered in Florida this year, and will be heading home sometime within the next two weeks at the most. Has anyone heard of any trouble traveling the interstates (I75) headed north during this troubling time we are all living in?
Many states are closing borders. If you don't have a drivers license from that state you cannot enter.
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Old 04-09-2020, 01:04 AM   #44
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if you're from Michigan and you want to go home, then go home, nobody can stop you...

the highways are open, and nobody is 'stopping' people at state borders... that's internet lure. It's just like traveling any other time, go home.
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Old 04-09-2020, 01:14 AM   #45
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The Open Road Calls, but Authorities Say ‘Stop’
The U.S. Constitution ensures the “right to travel,” but during the coronavirus pandemic, state and local officials are increasingly telling drivers to stay home.

My husband was stopped by police who thought we had a Louisiana plate in texas.
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Old 04-09-2020, 01:46 AM   #46
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I believe that yesterday they just close a large section of I 75 to rebuild several bridges from 8 mile north all the way up to Rochestor road. I am not positive of where the construction begins and ends but i think it was not supposed to be completed until fall time. Also I75 was being worked on north of Pinnconing although it should be almost completed by now
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Old 04-09-2020, 01:58 AM   #47
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Many states are closing borders. If you don't have a drivers license from that state you cannot enter.
Please don't perpetuate unfounded Internet rumors.

As the Supreme Court recognized more than 170 years ago, “we are one people with one common country. We are all citizens of the United States, and as members of the same community must have the right to pass and repass through every part of it without interruption, as freely as in our own states.” The right of all US citizens to travel freely among the states, the Court later explained in United States v. Guest (1966), “was conceived from the beginning to be a necessary concomitant of the stronger union the Constitution created.”
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Old 04-09-2020, 03:05 AM   #48
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Not an internet rumor, Texas State Troopers are stopping people at the border conducting a screening and having them fill out a travel form. The order from the governor calls for a 14 day quarantine after arriving in state. Now, the reporting does not speak to folks traveling through the state but they are stopping and screening. This applies to folks coming in through Louisiana.
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Old 04-09-2020, 03:17 AM   #49
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If the states are closing facilities in rest areas what are over the road truck drivers doing? Must they pull off at Pilot or Flying J when duty calls? That has to be a PIA. for them.
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Old 04-09-2020, 11:43 AM   #50
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Old 04-09-2020, 12:26 PM   #51
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Not an internet rumor, Texas State Troopers are stopping people at the border conducting a screening and having them fill out a travel form. The order from the governor calls for a 14 day quarantine after arriving in state. Now, the reporting does not speak to folks traveling through the state but they are stopping and screening. This applies to folks coming in through Louisiana.
That's the same thing many states are doing. It is not "closing the borders". Big difference.
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Old 04-09-2020, 12:33 PM   #52
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Linear on a linear graph produces straight lines.

Exponential produces a curve going to the sky.
I really don't wish to get into an extended debate about linear vs. exponential. But you picked a point mid-way on the graph to start your "linear" line. A more accurate line would start at the beginning of the graph, curving upward. To be linear, it would have had to stay horizontal, at the bottom of the graph. To start at a point other than the beginning, you're taking the information out of context.
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Old 04-09-2020, 01:31 PM   #53
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I really don't wish to get into an extended debate about linear vs. exponential. But you picked a point mid-way on the graph to start your "linear" line. A more accurate line would start at the beginning of the graph, curving upward. To be linear, it would have had to stay horizontal, at the bottom of the graph. To start at a point other than the beginning, you're taking the information out of context.
But you did anyway.

Linear graphs have slopes. My line shows the slope of the major portion of the graph. The slope at the beginning was less, the slope at the end is negative. A flat slope means nothing is changing and although a flat slope is linear, it is not the definition of linear



Using the exponential function above and assuming we had one confirmed case on 1 March, for your graph of new cases per day, doubling every day, we would be at 274 billion new cases 38 days later.
Or even if we just wanted to graph the total cases in the state with that exponential function we would have 274 billion total cases 38 days later.

Even if we use a much smaller base number such as 1.3 instead of 2, at day 38 we would have 21,372 new cases and at day 39 we would have 27, 784 new cases on your graph of new cases by day. Instead, we've peaked at about 1300 new cases at day 34. To get their with an exponential function the base would have to be 1.235 and by day 39 the number of new cases by day would be 3731.

You could break the graph down by 3 day segments and possibly find an exponential curve, but you would find more linear slopes.
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Old 04-09-2020, 01:43 PM   #54
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Old 04-09-2020, 03:03 PM   #55
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But you did anyway.

Linear graphs have slopes. My line shows the slope of the major portion of the graph. The slope at the beginning was less, the slope at the end is negative. A flat slope means nothing is changing and although a flat slope is linear, it is not the definition of linear



Using the exponential function above and assuming we had one confirmed case on 1 March, for your graph of new cases per day, doubling every day, we would be at 274 billion new cases 38 days later.
Or even if we just wanted to graph the total cases in the state with that exponential function we would have 274 billion total cases 38 days later.

Even if we use a much smaller base number such as 1.3 instead of 2, at day 38 we would have 21,372 new cases and at day 39 we would have 27, 784 new cases on your graph of new cases by day. Instead, we've peaked at about 1300 new cases at day 34. To get their with an exponential function the base would have to be 1.235 and by day 39 the number of new cases by day would be 3731.

You could break the graph down by 3 day segments and possibly find an exponential curve, but you would find more linear slopes.

Amazingly, the curves look similar. And I don't believe that the curve is required to follow the arbitrary algebraic formula that you have set. It will probably follow whatever curve the Coronavirus ultimately sets. (Please excuse my curve. I never was good drawing lines with a mouse.)
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Old 04-09-2020, 03:56 PM   #56
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Old 04-09-2020, 04:11 PM   #57
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Amazingly, the curves look similar. And I don't believe that the curve is required to follow the arbitrary algebraic formula that you have set. It will probably follow whatever curve the Coronavirus ultimately sets. (Please excuse my curve. I never was good drawing lines with a mouse.)
But it does have to follow an exponential equation formula for it to be an exponential graph.

You're correct, the curve will change as the numbers change; there is no "coronavirus equation".

Regardless of what you want to call it, the important thing is that we have seen a downtrend in the number of new cases daily for about the last week in Florida. That could change tomorrow but despite the major hotspot in SE Florida, overall, Florida seems to be handling this better than some other locations despite our aged population.
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Old 04-09-2020, 04:22 PM   #58
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...Or the Start?
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Old 04-09-2020, 05:52 PM   #59
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But it does have to follow an exponential equation formula for it to be an exponential graph.

You're correct, the curve will change as the numbers change; there is no "coronavirus equation".

Regardless of what you want to call it, the important thing is that we have seen a downtrend in the number of new cases daily for about the last week in Florida. That could change tomorrow but despite the major hotspot in SE Florida, overall, Florida seems to be handling this better than some other locations despite our aged population.

I'm glad that you're optimistic and I hope your optimism is rewarded. But the fact remains that during the past 8 days, there was only 1 day that there was less than 1.1 thousand cases diagnosed. And, less than a month ago, on March 11, there were only 6. With the quick rise in daily cases, I hesitate to call the past week's numbers a downturn. But I sincerely hope you are correct. I'd like to get back to our RV.
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Old 04-09-2020, 09:37 PM   #60
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I’ll jump in the deep end of the pool....

the graph is exponential, not doubt about it. And at some time in the future it will “flatten” due to the fact that there is a limit on the population that is available to get infected. This type of curve is called logistics growth and is an S curve not a J curve. We will run out of people who can get infected.

As far as the Florida chart - most states have one, we do in NC. Look carefully and you will see a faint gray dashed line that represents uncertainty in infection reporting due to testing needing 7 days. Any data to the right of the gray dashes is incomplete. Wait a day of two and see what the data says for today. That will give you a good idea how the curve is growing.
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