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Dave, with due respect, you're not taking other matters into account, like the bending forces (moments) at the end of the frame and extension.
It's not always just about GVWR and GCWR. If it were, then pickup trucks would be able to safely tow nearly as much on a bumper pull trailer as a 5th wheel or gooseneck, and they can't.
It's just now that Ford has bumper-pull ratings for SuperDuty pickups with much higher weight ratings and much higher tongue weight, but the frame is much stiffer, has a much higher section modulus, and is made of higher-strength steel.
The E-Series frame isn't that strong to start with, and adding an extension, however well built, still moves the receiver much further back behind the rear axle.
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