RV Prices Peaked?

[Campnjoe]

Value is only what someone is willing to pay. Dealers will drop prices until someone is willing to pay it. As long as people keep paying the current price, it won't move, but once they stop...

[Judge]

Originally Posted by dkoldman

Software license sales can be the same way. Dealers are bound to sell "X" amount of licenses per year, and when demand drops the dealers are holding the excess inventory cost and be quite costly if they they don't turn the inventory before year end reporting. To remedy they have to cut the prices. A good Software company will offer rebates to the dealer to help out, because they need they want those licenses sold, because it impact other financials flows such as maintenance contracts.

That is interesting and something I did not know. I'm in technology software sales myself and has not been something companies have done that I have worked for but I could see that happening with other software products.

[petef]

Yes, I have been watching a particular model, used, which shot up $20k but now seems to be getting back to prec19 levels

[Mgtv53]

Originally Posted by Judge

I also think the peak is over and we are going to see decline in new and used prices over the next 12 months because of several factors.... but most of it related to supply and demand.


- The manufacturing backlog will begin easing and while some new units are spoken for already, inventory levels will increase and competition between manufacturers and dealers will return. Some RV dealers are even increasing capacity because they think the demand levels are here to stay..... but I wouldn't be too sure of that prediction.

- A chunk of the masses who jumped into RV'ing for the first time over the last 12 months will realize it just wasn't for them and some lightly used rigs will hit the used market.

- Inflation is a reality and will be here for a while and that will impact many aspects of day-to-day life and curb RV'ing. Last year during COVID I could fill up on diesel for $100. I just got back from a 7+ week / 7200 mile trip where it cost $180 - $200 to fill up.... and in many places out west diesel was the same or less than regular gas. Campgrounds we stayed at last year also increased their price 25% this year. Winter heating bills are going to skyrocket this year and all of you have seen grocery prices.

- Some people will see tha shiny new rig in the driveway getting dull and after only being used a couple times a year they suddenly realize the loan they took out to buy it was a big mistake.

- Some people will be shocked with the quality..... or lack thereof.... as they expect an RV to be as reliable as their family car and the endless repairs and time lost at the dealer will make it so frsutrating they will dump their rigs.

- Some people will become frustrated by campgrounds being booked solid for months in advance and popular attractions being so crowded that it is not as much fun as they thought it would be.


Eventually these factors and others will cause supply to outpace demand and when that happens, price goes down to purge the inventory glut.

⛽ fuel prices going to kill the market and watch people dumping rvs

[Chateau_Nomad]

Just when it looked like gasoline prices were dropping, they shot up here from $3.06 to $3.30 practically overnight!!

31¢ per mile for me just became 33¢ per mile. Doesn't sound like much unless you consider it was only 22¢ a year ago.

[Mgtv53]

Originally Posted by Chateau_Nomad

Just when it looked like gasoline prices were dropping, they shot up here from $3.06 to $3.30 practically overnight!!

31¢ per mile for me just became 33¢ per mile. Doesn't sound like much unless you consider it was only 22¢ a year ago.

In Toledo price of diesel over$ 4.00 a gallon now

[Chance]

Originally Posted by Chateau_Nomad

Just when it looked like gasoline prices were dropping, they shot up here from $3.06 to $3.30 practically overnight!!

31¢ per mile for me just became 33¢ per mile. Doesn't sound like much unless you consider it was only 22¢ a year ago.

Size matters. I’m at +/- $0.21 per mile highway as long as I stay below 70 MPH. And that’s using Florida gas; less in Texas. Granted, my next van or motorhome will be significantly larger, though not necessarily thirstier.

Many buyers will downsize and others quit lifestyle altogether, or drive less. Large vans today can get 17 MPG on gasoline, so under $0.20 per mile. Plus smaller rigs cost a lot less to operate in other ways too.

If you’re correct on fuel costs affecting sales, we may see a reduction in price on larger motorhomes first.

[Judge]

Originally Posted by Mgtv53

In Toledo price of diesel over$ 4.00 a gallon now

Diesel is all over the map.....

We just got back from a 7-week trip out west. In places like Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas, I found Diesel the same price or less than regular gasoline at many stations.

In PA I just paid $3.49 but I have seen it as high a $4.19 in the 30-mile radius.

[Chateau_Nomad]

Originally Posted by Chance

Size matters. I’m at +/- $0.21 per mile highway as long as I stay below 70 MPH. And that’s using Florida gas; less in Texas. Granted, my next van or motorhome will be significantly larger, though not necessarily thirstier.

Many buyers will downsize and others quit lifestyle altogether, or drive less. Large vans today can get 17 MPG on gasoline, so under $0.20 per mile. Plus smaller rigs cost a lot less to operate in other ways too.

If you’re correct on fuel costs affecting sales, we may see a reduction in price on larger motorhomes first.

Hilly, curvy terrain puts a significant dent in gas mileage. We're preparing for our last week-long trip to central/southern West Virginia - dragging the Wrangler behind. I anticipate about 8 mpg for this trip - mostly hilly winding two-lane Appalachian style highways. There's no opportunity for cruise control or keeping a steady throttle or steady speed.

And... I NEVER get in a hurry on these roads. I've driven them for 50 years now, and seen my share of what getting in a hurry accomplishes... poor gas mileage is least of the worries.

[ducksface]

Originally Posted by Chateau_Nomad

Hilly, curvy terrain puts a significant dent in gas mileage. We're preparing for our last week-long trip to central/southern West Virginia - dragging the Wrangler behind. I anticipate about 8 mpg for this trip - mostly hilly winding two-lane Appalachian style highways. There's no opportunity for cruise control or keeping a steady throttle or steady speed.

And... I NEVER get in a hurry on these roads. I've driven them for 50 years now, and seen my share of what getting in a hurry accomplishes... poor gas mileage is least of the worries.

To tie two threads together:
What do we think the road you just described would do to an electric vehicles lab-test stated range?

I'm guessing an electric vehicle towing a towed on that road would not meet it's 400 mile range and would drop to less than 60 miles with a few shut down shunts to allow the batteries to cool.

[Chateau_Nomad]

Originally Posted by ducksface

To tie two threads together:
What do we think the road you just described would do to an electric vehicles lab-test stated range?

I'm guessing an electric vehicle towing a towed on that road would not meet it's 400 mile range and would drop to less than 60 miles with a few shut down shunts to allow the batteries to cool.

Wow... I really drifted off topic. But to answer using an educated guess:

For every action there is a reaction... tied to the "mileage/distance" problem, weight and friction have always been the enemy - no matter the propulsion method.

Tied to the issue of RV prices peaking... again, for every action there's a reaction. That's the way our economic system has always functioned.

[Beau388]

The factory production is limited by resources used to build an RV. Just look at the models offered in 2018 as compared to now. The copper price had doubled and Ford is charging 28% more for the stripped chassis. The list price for a Goodyear G670 19.5" tire has gone for $396 to $608. The conversion from steel boded truck and cars to aluminum has caused a shortage in particular alloys of aluminum. With the tariffs in place, cheap, dumped aluminum is no longer available. Competition for floor labor is intense. $1,000 to $5,000 hiring bonuses are the norm. Plastic prices have tripled because they are tied to the price of oil. I could go on, but you get the picture.

[Chance]

Originally Posted by Chateau_Nomad

Hilly, curvy terrain puts a significant dent in gas mileage. We're preparing for our last week-long trip to central/southern West Virginia - dragging the Wrangler behind. I anticipate about 8 mpg for this trip - mostly hilly winding two-lane Appalachian style highways. There's no opportunity for cruise control or keeping a steady throttle or steady speed.

And... I NEVER get in a hurry on these roads. I've driven them for 50 years now, and seen my share of what getting in a hurry accomplishes... poor gas mileage is least of the worries.

Some of my best MPG in different motorhomes (owned and rented Class C) have been while driving in hilly or mountainous terrain. Whereas 8 MPG was good for my V10 compact C at Interstate speeds on flats, my MPG was around 10 in North Rim of Grand Canyon area, or in the Rockies through Colorado. The slower speed of scenic routes improved MPG more than hills and mountains reduced it.

Electric motorhomes should take a relatively smaller hit on mountains because of regeneration. At least you get some energy back.

For now I prefer idea of smaller and “LIGHTER” motorhome with small engine because motorhomes are not used often enough to tie up that much battery capacity. Seems like a real waste for most owners. Hybrid would be my overall preference — best of both worlds.

[Chateau_Nomad]

Stick Ford's 3.5 Ecoboost in a hybrid layout. I know some don't like turbos, but it's sad that my F-150 has more HP and torque than my V10 motorhome! Add the benefits of hybrid and the additional insane torque of electric motors...

[Chance]

Originally Posted by Chateau_Nomad

Stick Ford's 3.5 Ecoboost in a hybrid layout. I know some don't like turbos, but it's sad that my F-150 has more HP and torque than my V10 motorhome! Add the benefits of hybrid and the additional insane torque of electric motors...

EcoBoost is not very efficient under heavy loads, which is why you don’t see them in large trucks and motorhomes.

If you want fuel economy, lower cost, and simpler engine for a hybrid, Atkinson cycle is a better choice than EcoBoost in my opinion. Some of these gasoline engines with up to 14:1 compression ratio approach the thermal efficiency of Diesel engines.

A hybrid motorhome makes a lot of functional sense to me. Mainly, it wouldn’t need 300 kWh or whatever size battery that only gets used a few times a year.

[petef]

@ 3.50 I am at .50 a mile.. And gas here is $3.70....


high gas will make some people give up motor homes..

Originally Posted by Chance

Size matters. I’m at +/- $0.21 per mile highway as long as I stay below 70 MPH. And that’s using Florida gas; less in Texas. Granted, my next van or motorhome will be significantly larger, though not necessarily thirstier.

Many buyers will downsize and others quit lifestyle altogether, or drive less. Large vans today can get 17 MPG on gasoline, so under $0.20 per mile. Plus smaller rigs cost a lot less to operate in other ways too.

If you’re correct on fuel costs affecting sales, we may see a reduction in price on larger motorhomes first.

[ducksface]

Originally Posted by petef

@ 3.50 I am at .50 a mile.. And gas here is $3.70....


high gas will make some people give up motor homes..

Figure depreciation and the average years owned vs miles vs expenses and see that number be about $4 per mile.

[lwmcguire]

Originally Posted by ducksface

Figure depreciation and the average years owned vs miles vs expenses and see that number be about $4 per mile.

I learned early in life by listening to my parents to always know the unit cost of everything your utilizing

This was on a family farm and ranch operation

My cost per mile is currently just over $13

Simply a lifestyle decision that you pay for

[taylorbob1]

Originally Posted by lwmcguire

I learned early in life by listening to my parents to always know the unit cost of everything your utilizing

This was on a family farm and ranch operation

My cost per mile is currently just over $13

Simply a lifestyle decision that you pay for

$13/mile is quite expensive

How did you calculate that?

[dkoldman]

Originally Posted by taylorbob1

$13/mile is quite expensive

How did you calculate that?

Not really... he may be royalty as far as we know and have to pay for Police escort services for his entourage

But he is from Missouri, some tells me he will Show Us

But my educated guess is that he may be factoring in the cost of the RV etc.?