RV Prices Peaked?

[dkoldman]

Originally Posted by Judge

That is interesting and something I did not know. I'm in technology software sales myself and has not been something companies have done that I have worked for but I could see that happening with other software products.

Software sales models these days can be all over the place, from simple subscription sales, to amounts of vast data required for storage. But the industry on my mind at the time of the post was Point of Sale software like Aloha & Adelo Restaurant licenses.

[Chateau_Nomad]

Originally Posted by taylorbob1

$13/mile is quite expensive

How did you calculate that?

Fixed expenses + variable expenses ÷ miles driven.

Include every expense related to owning/operating the motorhome.

Obviously the more miles driven, the lower effective cost per mile.

[Chance]

I can see $13/mile under right conditions. An article a few years back estimated cost of owning average motorhome around $1,000 per month. We would have to assume that an above average luxury motorhome could easily cost twice that, or $2,000 per month (some I’m sure more). That’s $24,000 per year, and if driven less than the average (which is reportedly around 5,000 miles per year), say only 2,000 miles annually, fixed costs would be in range of $12/mile. Add variable trip costs and $13/mile isn’t as crazy as it first sounds.


I’m at 212,000 miles, so at that rate it would have cost me over $2.7 million.

Glad I have a fully-depreciated cheap metal tent on wheels so I don’t have to worry about costs (at least no more than an SUV or minivan).

[dkoldman]

Originally Posted by Chateau_Nomad

Fixed expenses + variable expenses ÷ miles driven.

Include every expense related to owning/operating the motorhome.

Obviously the more miles driven, the lower effective cost per mile.

Well I just got poor and poorer. I just did my calculation and I get $7.35 per mile Now I see why some some put the RVs up for the Winter. I am cancelling all remaining trips, including my unwinterized trip to Defiance, Ohio this winter.

Gonna have to cut back on my washing & wax costs, and some of that preventative maintenance. After all; how dirty can an oil filter be after a few years? My pool filter is dirty all the time; but the water is crystal clear

[Chateau_Nomad]

Originally Posted by dkoldman

Well I just got poor and poorer. I just did my calculation and I get $7.35 per mile Now I see why some some put the RVs up for the Winter. I am cancelling all remaining trips, including my unwinterized trip to Defiance, Ohio this winter.

Gonna have to cut back on my washing & wax costs, and some of that preventative maintenance. After all; how dirty can an oil filter be after a few years? My pool filter is dirty all the time; but the water is crystal clear

I'll bet you only keep your pool 1/3 full...

[dkoldman]

Originally Posted by Chance

I can see $13/mile under right conditions. An article a few years back estimated cost of owning average motorhome around $1,000 per month. We would have to assume that an above average luxury motorhome could easily cost twice that, or $2,000 per month (some I’m sure more). That’s $24,000 per year, and if driven less than the average (which is reportedly around 5,000 miles per year), say only 2,000 miles annually, fixed costs would be in range of $12/mile. Add variable trip costs and $13/mile isn’t as crazy as it first sounds.


I’m at 212,000 miles, so at that rate it would have cost me over $2.7 million.

Glad I have a fully-depreciated cheap metal tent on wheels so I don’t have to worry about costs (at least no more than an SUV or minivan).

I think the only flaw is that with a depreciating asset a certain portion would have to written off per year as an expense and that should be the basis of calculation not the full cost of RV. But for fun, I did full cost to play along

It was similar calculation on why I sudden; decided to spend $500 on my Pure AGM batteries. Given my yearly gas costs, the $500 was chump change. I am on pace to averaging 10,000 miles / year; so at 8 mpg that is 1,250 gallons and at $3/gal that is $3,750 / year on gas My new batteries should last at least 7 years; so my battery cost is $71/year It was a no brainer and why I will never ever see FLA as House Batteries in any RV I ever own until the end of time

[dkoldman]

Originally Posted by Chateau_Nomad

I'll bet you only keep your pool 1/3 full...

I keep my pool 1/3 full, 2/3 full and 3/3 full at all times. I focus is to accommodate all the varying preferences for every poster. It is the least I can do

FWIW, We left Colorado with less than 1/4 tank of fresh water. I didn't have any hookups at our campsite, and I didn't care to go to the parks dump station (especially for fresh water). I am gonna try to use it the balance of the water here at home until it goes empty. Then the drama, do I fill it full or stop at 1/3 for my next trip For sure I would have been in a bad way had I made the Colorado trip with 1/3rd tank. I kind of like our water here at home, I don't know what I may get on the road if I ever needed more than 70 gallons; which is unlikely for the durations of our trips ( 1 week or less)

[DavidEM]

Back to the original topic, two new sub $80k listings have shown up on RVTrader for 2018 Axis 24.1s. Both were listed at $73,000, one by a private party and another by a dealer in Michigan.

So that makes three I have seen so far significantly below $80K. Looks like a trend to me.

David

[EA37TS]

Originally Posted by DavidEM

Back to the original topic, two new sub $80k listings have shown up on RVTrader for 2018 Axis 24.1s. Both were listed at $73,000, one by a private party and another by a dealer in Michigan.

So that makes three I have seen so far significantly below $80K. Looks like a trend to me.

David

How many listed above 80k?

[Chateau_Nomad]

Originally Posted by DavidEM

Back to the original topic, two new sub $80k listings have shown up on RVTrader for 2018 Axis 24.1s. Both were listed at $73,000, one by a private party and another by a dealer in Michigan.

So that makes three I have seen so far significantly below $80K. Looks like a trend to me.

David

Again... Look at mileage and condition. Two units most likely won't justify a trend. When 60-80% of a particular model start showing up at "reasonable" prices, then I'd say there's definitely a trend.

There's already a slowdown in housing sales in my area. People have evidently stopped paying the artificially inflated prices and maybe decided to hold off? That would be the SMART path for consumers buying RVs, and would quickly bring prices down.

Inflated groceries, gasoline, etc. all add to the equation... it's just a matter of time before yet another bubble bursts.

[chunker21]

Opinions is what we are dealing with in RV pricing because the members here live in different parts off the country with different economic forces and environmental (weather), that drive pricing. Around here, deep south, weather doesn't play as much of a deterrent as say in the land of 9 months winter and 3 months poor skiing. In spite of the dreaded covid and governmental threats to whack my peepee, I have traveled in my RV in 20 and 21. RV dealers where I went, AL, MS, LA, TX, NM, AZ, UT, CO, ND, MN, IL, KY TN, KY, WV, and some I an't remember, had/have plenty of travel trailers.I didn't go ask $$ cause I don't want one, but plenty of inventory. When I bought the Omni in May 20 "some" inventory regionally and if you stuck to your guns and did research, discounts were available. Mine was basically 26% off MSRP. Yes higher than say 2 years ago. Today MSRP for that model is up 10%+ and I'm not sure about inventory since I have mine I'm not looking as intensively.

Since the inventory of TT is high, at least around here, if a dealer wants to sell one, he/she will have to discount some. Some people are poor negotiators and they get the privilege of paying more.

Motorized RV are different in that shortages still exist for a variety of reasons and different classes of motorized inventory is variable depending on trends, pricing, and now fuel pricing.

Reference cost per mile, if you don't use it the cost per mile is astronomical but there are operating costs that vary with fuel and maintenance costs. Years ago I figured I could ride my Honda 750 for $.011 a mile. No maintenance, depreciation or other than fuel was considered. Before year's end it rose to a startling $.017 per mile. I didn't stop going to work due to the increase. I don't let fuel prices stop me from traveling but I will consider where I go. West coast isn't on my itinerary for that and way to many people there. When or if figuring a cost of a trip you could stay in HH, Walmart, rest areas and reduce nightly costs, always travel downhill with a tail wind drafting behind a semi to reduce fuel costs. But all those things hurt my brain trying to figure it out so I'll stick to my simple planning of enjoying life and pay the piper.

Sunday morning ramblings.

[atreis]

Including the cost of the RV less a conservative/low estimate of the resale value, estimated maintenance at $1K per year (should be very conservative/high), $5 per gallon average for fuel over the years that I own the RV (also hopefully conservative/high), I still came in at less than $2 per mile for the estimated time that I expect to own it (~10 years, 60,000 miles - this is my fourth RV and I've yet to own one for less than 8 years).

I must be doing something right.

The only way to get to $13, one would either have to have a super-expensive rig that depreciates to nothing almost immediately, and either not drive it very many miles or not expect to own it for very long.

[dkoldman]

Originally Posted by atreis

Including the cost of the RV less a conservative/low estimate of the resale value, estimated maintenance at $1K per year (should be very conservative/high), $5 per gallon average for fuel over the years that I own the RV (also hopefully conservative/high), I still came in at less than $2 per mile for the estimated time that I expect to own it (~10 years, 60,000 miles - this is my fourth RV and I've yet to own one for less than 8 years).

I must be doing something right.

The only way to get to $13, one would either have to have a super-expensive rig that depreciates to nothing almost immediately, and either not drive it very many miles or not expect to own it for very long.

I agree with. If I account for the basis of the RV asset that I own. When I recalculate; & based on a low resale estimate; I drop from $7.35/mile to $2.05 per mile.

That is a lot better, but I am still defiantly cancelling my winter trip to Defiance, Ohio unwinterized due to cost per mile; can't yall move Ohio closer to Texas

[dkoldman]

Originally Posted by DavidEM

Back to the original topic, two new sub $80k listings have shown up on RVTrader for 2018 Axis 24.1s. Both were listed at $73,000, one by a private party and another by a dealer in Michigan.

So that makes three I have seen so far significantly below $80K. Looks like a trend to me.

David

About a month ago I was at a Winnebago dealer and the Service guy was telling me they can take RVs in at any time now, and the turnaround should be very quick because the sales and what they call honeymooners have decreased.

Even so he suggested that I bring it in when I could do without for at least 2 weeks. I got one more trip planned and will try to get it in before Thanksgiving as that should be the 1st trip after the Service when a few warranty items are taken care if. Note My RV is 2 years old and the Dealer (that I did NOT buy from) is still taking care of few warranty items. I have been truly fortunate from what I have read.

I say all of the above to state other mitigating factors that may support your theory of a downward trend. Your data points are factual and may not be statistically sound just yet, but it does not mean they are not the start of early data points that prove out the trend.

[apr67]

My only data points.

3/2020
RV Direct quote for Tiffin 36UA:
$133897

10/2021
RV Direct quote for Tiffin 36UA:
$209,111

That isn't all inflation, a bunch of that is supply and demand.

[taylorbob1]

Originally Posted by apr67

My only data points.

3/2020
RV Direct quote for Tiffin 36UA:
$133897

10/2021
RV Direct quote for Tiffin 36UA:
$209,111

That isn't all inflation, a bunch of that is supply and demand.

That rig ain’t ever comin’ back anywhere near $133,897
That I can tell you

[DavidEM]

Originally Posted by apr67

My only data points.

3/2020
RV Direct quote for Tiffin 36UA:
$133897

10/2021
RV Direct quote for Tiffin 36UA:
$209,111

That isn't all inflation, a bunch of that is supply and demand.

Well supply and demand imbalances cause inflation don't they?

The question I was raising as the OP to this thread is, when are prices going to start dropping and get back to normal. Normal is probably somewhere in between $133,897 and $209,111, more closer to the lower figure.

David

[Chateau_Nomad]

I doesn't matter what name you want to call it... it's STILL just someone MAKING A CONCIOUS DECISION to raise the selling price... PERIOD. Too bad an employee can't just raise their salary with the excuse that it costs more to feed my family... Level playing field? No... I just don't "understand how the system works!"

[apr67]

Originally Posted by taylorbob1

That rig ain’t ever comin’ back anywhere near $133,897
That I can tell you

I don't doubt that.

Strangely my used RV doesn't seem to be worth anything more when I want to trade it, not sure I understand how that works..

[Scubawise]

Everyone with the new covid variate & new mask airline mandates forget RV prices going away.
My cousin can't find one!

Hidden gem Corpus Christi $7 100 ft from beach.
Enjoy team